This Saturday, we’ll witness a true clash of Titans. Reigning champions Astros will be squaring off with the legendary 108-win Red Sox at the ALCS! Who will prevail? Read ahead for all the full details about this epic match up.
Tomorrow, October 13, will be the start of the best-of-seven 2018 American League Championship Series (ALCS). And if we know our baseball, it will be nothing less than special. On the one side, we have the ruling champions Houston Astros, and on the other, we have the 108-win Boston Red Sox. In hindsight, you’re looking at the two best teams in the regular season winning 108 and 103 games, respectively. It’s hard to make a strong bet, but let’s try. How well do these two giant teams stack up against each other? Read ahead for our full analysis and so much more.
But first,
Let’s take a look at the ALCS schedule and bracket.
Game 1, Saturday – Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA during the season) vs. Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11), 8:09 p.m. ET
Game 2, Sunday – Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88) vs. David Price (16-7, 3.58), 7:09 p.m. ET
Game 3, Tuesday – Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28) vs. TBA, 5:09 p.m. ET
Game 4, Wednesday – TBA vs. TBA, 8:39 p.m. ET
Game 5 (if nec.), Thursday – TBA vs. TBA, 8:09 p.m. ET
Game 6 (if nec.), Saturday – TBA vs. TBA, time TBD
Game 7 (if nec.), Sunday – TBA vs. TBA, 7:39 p.m. ET
LCS games will be airing on Fox, FS1, and TBS These games will be streaming on fuboTV. For a look at the complete schedule, click here.
The Highest Combined Win Tally Ever
(by LCS opponent)
Let’s look at the numbers here. The Astros, current champions and titleholder, won 103 games during the regular season. This is more than they won during their championship season of 2017. Impressive, eh? But don’t count the Red Sox just yet. Boston won 108 games. This is the highest tally ever since the 2001 Mariners won a record 116. Together, the Astros and Red Sox have outscored their opponents during the regular season by 492 runs. And in the ALDS, they outnumbered their opponents by a combined number of 28 runs.
Even more impressive?
The only #postseason series ever with more regular-season wins than the 211 the Red Sox (108) and Astros (103) combine for?
The 1998 World Series (#Yankees vs #Padres -212). pic.twitter.com/tXvL67VH8V
— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) October 10, 2018
Suffice it to say, this is going to be one hell of a fight. And if we’re looking at historical facts, this game might even be better than the legendary 1998 World Series which featured the 114-win Yankees against the 98-win Padres.
Boston’s Achilles Heel
#RedSox bullpen passes big first test, with some turbulence https://t.co/Sxk05u6Ecr @EvanDrellich
— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) October 10, 2018
This is a topic that has been discussed ad nauseum all season. Do the Boston Red Sox really have a bullpen problem? Well, maybe. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Nathan Eovaldi are all adequate starters for the Red Sox. But the Achilles Heel? It’s Boston’s bullpen. Let’s take a look back.
In their four games against the Yankees in the ALDS, the Red Sox bullpen posted a 3.57 ERA over 17 2/3 innings. Now, don’t count the 16-1 beatdown in Game 3, then the bullpen ERA was 4.02. It’s also worth noting that Craig Kimbrel nearly blew the save in Game 4. He did so after giving up two runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. And if it wasn’t for Steve Pearce’s game-saving moment at first base, we might be seeing a forced decisive Game 5 against the Yankees.
There might indeed be some trouble in the waters for the Red Sox. Looking at their three wins in the ALDS, their starters got through at least five innings of work before handing it over to the bullpen. If Boston has to go to its bullpen early as it did in Game 2 when David Price left after just 1 2/3 innings, they won’t be able to win any games.
Strength Match-up
Three games, three wins, one celebration. On to the ALCS!#NeverSettle pic.twitter.com/Ubyoc5SVky
— Houston Astros (@astros) October 11, 2018
It’s no news how the Astros dominated the league in run prevention during the regular season. Houston allowed an impressive 534 runs, which comes to just 3.3 runs per game. Second after them are the Dodgers, who allowed 610 runs. Again, Astros dominates this category. Thanks to their blended approach of leading the majors in rotation ERA and rotation FIP as well as in the in bullpen ERA and bullpen FIP categories. We couldn’t expect any less from their array of skilled starting pitchers. Furthermore, the Astros also ranks fourth in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, the percentage of batted balls that a defense converts into outs. In a nutshell, the Astros dominates at every aspect of run prevention.
But how about the Red Sox? Perhaps equally as impressive, Boston led the majors in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Additionally, they ranked unexpectedly at number three in MLB in stolen bases. Fenway Park is indeed doing more than a little work given these numbers. However, it’s important to remember that Boston ranked fourth in MLB in runs scored on the road and fifth in OPS on the road. You can’t deny that the Red Sox can hit, and hit anywhere.
Player To Watch: Carlos Correa (Maybe)
Don’t forget to keep an eye on Astros shortstop Carlos Correa. Back in 2017, the young baseball star excelled on the postseason. However, fans have been disappointed at his lack of vigor during the regular season. In fact, Correa spent all of August on the disabled list in a disappointing campaign that saw him finish with career worsts in practically all offensive categories.
In 2017, Correa hit .315 with 24 homers and 84 RBIs. Since then, he regressed this season hitting .239 with 15 homers and 65 RBIs. However, like all the things that plague the best players, this is due to a back injury for a large portion of the season. An injury, he says, that he’s still feeling effects to this day. Correa still intends to continue playing through the injury. And the Astros’ division-series sweep provided him four full days off to rest before the ALCS. If luck has it, Carlos Correa may just have the strength he needs to produce to help the Astros at a shot at a repeat.
Two Titans Against Each Other, Who Will Blink First?
Right now, it’s looking more and more like anybody’s game. These two teams both have their strengths and weaknesses. Houston, arguably, had the best starting rotation on the way into this postseason. With their decisive sweep of the Indians in the ALDS, it’s difficult to doubt their pitching prowess. Combined, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Dallas Keuchel pitched 17 1/3 innings, with five earned runs and striking out 21. Additionally, compared to the Red Sox’s bullpen, Houston’s pitching is out of this world.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, has its own impressive record heading into the postseason. Boston scored 27 runs in four games vs. the Yankees, highlighted by their 16-run explosion in Game 3. With J.D. Martinez’s handling the helm with his .357 average and six RBIs, Boston hit .279 as a team in the ALDS. And that’s coupled with MVP-candidate Mookie Betts hitting just .188 (3 for 16) in the series.
Here’s a classic match made in heaven. Boston Red Sox has baseball’s best offensive play strategy but Houston Astros can definitely play against that with a strong starting rotation courtesy of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. The Astros are not showing any sign of weakness leading into tomorrow’s game, but if history is any indication, anything can happen.